By Charles Brooks
The many months of
political posturing and rhetoric will finally come to an end on Election night
when we learn who’s hand will be raised in victory in this year’s battle
between the Democrats and Republicans. Reading
the recent news accounts, polls and analyses about this year’s mid-term
elections, is almost like reading a political obituary for the Democratic Party
– the forecast just doesn’t look good for Democrats. Simply put, Democrats are
faced with daunting odds to win elections and will probably suffer more than
just a few defeats. To make matters worse, this year’s election cycle is taking
place during an off presidential election year when people typically don’t vote. Meanwhile the 2014 mid-term elections are
framed for public consumption as one where there’s
a lot at stake – how many times have you heard that during this year’s
election cycle? Typically during these
election cycles you will find news stories about the significance of the black
vote as well as contrasting stories about the black vote being taken for
granted by the Democratic Party. But
what appears to be different with the 2014 elections is the degree of just how
important, how significant the black vote will be for the DemocraticParty.
The issue,
however, is that while President Obama is not running in this year’s election –
his legacy certainly is in the running. Consider for a moment just two items
and how they would impact the President’s legacy - the Republican’s incessant
chatter about impeachment along with the repeal of President Obama’s signature
legislation, the Affordable Care Act (ACA).
With 36 Senate seats up for election: 21 belonging to Democrats versus
15 for Republicans, Black America’s vote is under heavy pursuit to help the
Democrats retain their majority in the Senate. The Democratic Party is looking
for Black America to shield and protect the President’s legacy from GOP
obstructionism. The chairperson of the Congressional Black Caucus, Marcia L.
Fudge (D-Ohio) recently told the New York Times: “Anybody who looks at the data
realizes that if the black vote, and the brown vote, doesn’t turn out, we can’t
win. It’s just that simple,” Ms. Fudge went on to say: “If we don’t turn out,
we cannot hold the Senate.” African-Americans could help swing elections in
Georgia, Louisiana, North Carolina and possibly Arkansas, a New York Times
analysis of voter data shows, but only if they turn out at higher-than-forecast
rates.
The Joint Center
for Political and Economic Studies released a report entitled, “Black Turnout & The 2014 Midterms”
where they concluded: “The analysis of
voter turnout data corroborates the suspicion that this will be a challenging
year for Democrats. Assuming black
turnout consistent with recent midterm elections and current polling data,
Democrats will find it hard to put together winning coalitions, even with
overwhelming African American support. Democratic candidates with the best
prospects of winning include those running in states with relatively strong
third party candidates who can serve as spoilers and states with small black
populations where Democrats (or, in the case of Kansas, Independents) are
performing strongly among white voters.” Wow! So basically the Joint Center report is saying
that while the Black vote is being heavily pursued, the black vote still needs
the presence of third party candidates to make a difference in the elections.
Yet this pursuit
of the black vote presents a bit of a dilemma for Black America; on one hand
there’s the sentiment that the Democratic Party routinely takes the black vote
for granted while on the other hand, the failure to vote Democratic will compel
Republicans to advance a conservative agenda that is in direct contrast to Black
America’s political interests. But there’s
another motivating factor to consider here… the relentless campaign waged by Republicans, who
took a legislative approach to shrinking the pool of voters. The stench of 19th century Jim Crow
slowly rises from the graveyard of American racism as Republicans justify their
actions with claims of addressing voter fraud.
In essence, they’ve proposed and passed legislation to address a
nonexistent issue – incredible don’t you think? These voter suppression measures include requiring a government-issued
photo ID to vote and proof of citizenship to register, cutting back on early
voting, eliminating Election Day registration, new restrictions on voter
registration drives as well as additional barriers to voting for people with
criminal convictions.
Subsequently,
there’s a political battle setting the Get Out The Vote activities versus stringent
voter suppression measures. Now these measures have been passed
– for the most part - by several state legislatures since the election of the
nation’s first African American president. So now, you can get a better sense
of the significance of the 2014 election when you begin to understand how these
voter suppression measures may possibly affect one’s ability to cast a vote. Bear
in mind that the Brennan Center for Justice reported that of the 11 states
with the highest African American turnout in 2008, seven passed laws making it
harder to vote. In addition, of the 12 states with the largest Hispanic
population growth in the 2010 Census, nine have new restrictions in place. And
of the 15 states that used to be monitored closely under the Voting Rights Act
because of a history of racial discrimination in elections, nine passed new
restrictions. These reasons
alone will almost certainly compel the public’s attention…and their scrutiny on
November 4th.
If nothing else, a
review of the exit polls for the 2014 mid-terms can begin to answer at least
two critical questions: First, how will Black America respond to the SOS call
sent out by Democrats – particularly after revelations of Democrats refusing to
stand up in support of President Obama? And the second question - how much did the
various voter suppression measures impact black voter turnout and what role, if
any, did this have on the many elections held across the nation?
