words by Charles Brooks
Despite volumes of evidenced based research of recidivism, the perception remains strong, enabling the capacity to build a political agenda that weaponizes trauma, fear, and emotional anxiety.
Despite news headlines around the country of falling crime and recidivism rates, conservative outlets, such as the Manhattan Institute publishes this 2024 report, "Why “Rehabilitating” Repeat Criminal Offenders Often Fails", and wrote the following: “...After a hundred years of theorizing, testing, evaluating, and criticizing, social science has consistently demonstrated that serious criminal behavior remains stubbornly stable over time, situation, and place. Those who commit crimes today will be those who commit crimes tomorrow, and they will be the same people who commit crimes until they are incapacitated by age, infirmity, imprisonment, or death….”
Such was the case in Maryland, the most recent state to adopt sentence reform legislation, the Maryland Second Look Act, to address deep racial disparities after years of mass incarceration. The new law provides a pathway for inmates to petition the court for a review of their sentence, if they served at least twenty years in state prison.
The new legislation went into effect back in October 2025 after a long-fought battle for the bill’s passage. Framed and typically viewed through the lens of sentence reform versus victims' rights, the new law inevitably raised questions around recidivism.
During committee debate last year, one of the bill’s sponsors State Senator Charles Sydnor, spoke of the research-based studies that show individuals convicted of violent offenses are among the least likely to reoffend, “There is a large body of research demonstrating that the likelihood of committing violent crimes, including murder decline significantly with age. Maryland specific data supports these findings, showing where individuals convicted of violent offenses are among the least likely to reoffend.”
There are several organizations such as the Prison Policy Institute, Sentencing Project, and Vera Institute nationwide that regularly publish their reports and analysis of data showing the low rates of recidivism as well as the research establishing how ineffective long sentences really are.
In Maryland, the 40% recidivism rate is often tossed around yet cited with little or no frame of reference or context. The available data compels a different conversation around recidivism in Maryland.
For example, in a December 2025 press release, the Maryland Department of Public Safety and Correctional Services (DPSCS) indicated that: “Maryland’s first-year recidivism rate declined to a record low of 13.7 % while the three-year recidivism rate dropped to pre-pandemic levels.”
According to the latest available DPSCS reports, the recidivism rate went up slightly from 32.15% in 2021 compared to 31.55% in 2019.1 In other words, 67.85% of those released did not return to prison in 2021 compared to 68.46% in 2019. Meanwhile, for new cases there were just 11.42% in 2019 compared to 12.01% in 2021. That means the remaining cases - about 20% were for technical violations of parole and probation.
The report made this point: “...Returns due to technical violations of community supervision are the most significant driver of first year recidivism (39%) . On average, technical violations occurred in the first 6 months after release…”
Their 2022 Recidivism Report also noted: “...Cumulative 3-year recidivism rates decrease with age at release…” and generally, inmates with shorter total sentence lengths had higher recidivism rates than those that carried longer, more severe sentences.
There’s additional evidence of low recidivism as a result of the prisoners released due to the landmark Unger v. Maryland case. In this case, the judge ruled due process was denied and as a result, 200 lifers, convicted of violent crimes such as first-degree murder, rape and felony murder were eligible for sentence review, and eventually released.
As a result of support and resources from the Maryland Unger Project, as of March 2024, the recidivism rate for new convictions is a low, 3.5%.
The most recent data available shows a 0% recidivism rate, for the 24 released in the first year of the 2021 Juvenile Restoration Act. In a 2022 report, the Maryland Office of the Public Defender published, "The Juvenile Restoration Act: Year One", and stated, “The first year of the Juvenile Restoration Act shows that, with an available court mechanism and robust re-entry planning and support services, many individuals who have served long sentences can be safely released….”
The declining rates of recidivism amplifies the significant value of reentry programs, and the critical role they play in the transition to life outside the prison walls.
The extensive volume of research studies on the ineffectiveness of long sentences, recidivism data, and the efficacy of reentry programs paints a picture that should lead to a different conversation that draws different conclusions about recidivism in Maryland.
Notes:
(1) Recidivism statistics are calculated based on a “cohort model,” which looks at all the people released in a given time period and then follows them for 3 years to determine how many were re-arrested, re-convicted, or returned to prison
Landmark 'Unger V. Maryland' Ruling Frees More Than 130 Lifers After Decades In Prison : NPR
2020 Fact Sheet: Microsoft Word - Unger Fact Sheet
Releasing Older Prisoners Convicted of Violent Crimes: The Unger Story, University of Maryland Law Journal of Race, Religion, Gender & Class 185 (2022)
Meet the Ungers, Highline, Huff Post
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